隔夜利率或走高‧大馬產託股抗跌獲青睞
Created 08/14/2013 - 11:10
（吉隆坡13日訊）大馬產托因最近大馬政府債券回酬告升而股價跌超過10%，緊隨惠譽調低債券展望至“負面”，大馬經濟處於謹慎氛圍，未來利率醞釀走高或有導致融資成本每年飆1至5%之風險，黃氏唯高達調低大馬產託目標價3至5%，並認為目前是趁低吸購良機。
分析員指出，過去兩個月，政府債券回酬平均擴大20至30個基點至6.1%，預期隔夜利率走高，促使大馬產託股過去兩個月已下跌超過10%。該行認為目前是趁低吸購“抗跌”產托股良機。
認行認為目前是趁低吸購良機，目前的產託估值仍比區域高，具有成長潛能與注入新資產的馬產託為其首選，包括柏威年產業信托（PAVREIT，5212，主板產業投資信托組）、KLCC產托（KLCC，5235SS，主板產業投資信托組）。
今年迄今，根據覆蓋範圍的大馬產託調查顯示（KLCC產託除外），股價挫跌3%，相比富時綜指上漲6%。目前，10年期大馬政府債券與大市值股的平均回酬為170基點，比較2013年6月中脫售債券期間為150基點，且已回復至2013年債券下跌期間的水平。
該行對各大產託的大資產壓力測試顯示，如柏威年的擴充裝修、雙威、莫納斯大學校址與布特拉購物中心裝修，若融資成本每增30基點，融資成本便增長1至3%；以50基點計則每年增長2至5%。
AXIS產業信托（AXREIT，5106，主板產業投資信托組）則有59%債務需在一年內再融資，而KLCC產托近期有最大再融資風險，有10億至20億令吉債務需要在一兩年內再融資（截至2012年杪計）。
“不過，KLCC產託可從其具韌力的盈利成長與強勁資產表現足以抵銷衝擊。”
柏威年和KLCC成首選
柏威年產託
柏威年產業信托――注人資產策略最明確，柏威年擴充計劃料於2015年完工，2016年始注入；2015年USJ的零售商場料售予柏威年，料座落高、中產收入與人口密集地區的商場，表現可期。
吉隆坡柏威年位於策略地點，具有強勁的空間需求，67%淨出租面積今年更新，料可促成盈利成長。未來3年債務固定為4.25%，近期無融資需求。
調低目標價至1令吉60仙，主要是吉隆坡柏威年擴充計劃融資成本再增30個基點；未把USJ零售商場與法輪海88計算在預測中。
KLCC產托
看好大地宏圖大廈（Daya Bumi）裝修與注入資產，可進一步鞏固其資產與在低企業稅下受惠；收購陽光廣場（Suria KLCC）有助強化資產，儘管租金屬高端（每平方英尺為22至25令吉），但基於其地標性地點，預計仍會有殷切需求。惟基於上述收購，融資成本增加達30個基點，而調低目標價至8令吉55仙。
其他“買進”股嘉德商托（CMMT，5180，主板產業投資信托組）、雙威產業信托（SUNREIT，5176，主板產業投資信托組）、桂嘉資產管理（QCAPITA，5123，主板產業投資信托組），也因未來融資成本高，而調低目標價。AXIS產業信托（AXREIT，5106，主板產業投資信托組）則因早前表現特出，股價迄今增長25%，調低評級至“持有”與下調目標價。
Source: 星洲日報
Publish date: 14/08/13
公正党属下智库人民研究院（Institut Rakyat）认为，外资未参与购买我国首次发行的30年主权债券，已经为我国经济拉响了警钟，反映投资界担忧大马可能出现双赤字——即政府财政赤字和来往账目赤字。
“在历史上，大马发行主权债券，不曾吸引不到外资的兴趣。这些债券向来都被列为A-或A3的投资等级。”
国家银行是在9月27日首次发行长达30年的主权债券，尽管这次债券获得2.44倍的超额认购，但是根据多家媒体报道，外资却缺席，相反主要的买家都是本地退休基金和保险公司。
Source: malaysiakini, 2013年10月7日 下午2点16分
Malaysia’s total local currency bonds outstanding stood at RM994bn (US$314bn) at 30 June 2013, the highest in the Asian region.
That’s a 6.4 per cent rise from last year though 0.2 per cent lower than the end-of-first quarter 2013.
A bond is paper issued by a borrower, whether the government, GLCs or private firms, with a promise to pay periodic interest and to repay the face value upon maturity. The terms of payment depend on how investors view the offer, the risk involved and the country’s economic climate – a view also shaped by rating agencies.
Out of this RM994bn bonds outstanding, the corporate sector accounts for RM406bn or US$128bn. Here are the top 30 outstanding corporate bonds in Malaysia. Note that four out of the top five issuers are state-owned.
Meanwhile, the central government accounts for RM459bn (US$145bn) or 77 per cent of the the total government bonds outstanding of RM588bn. This is a 10 per cent increase from the previous year. Moody’s Investors Service has an A3 rating for government bonds.
Banks and other financial institutions are the largest holders (42 per cent) of government debt at the end of the first quarter of 2013. Foreign investors hold 31 per cent of outstanding government bonds, while social security institutions like the EPF hold 20 per cent. Social security institutions also hold 10 per cent of corporate bonds.
When compared to the size of our economy, our bond market comes up to 105.3 per cent of GDP, still the highest in Asean and higher than Hong Kong’s or even China’s.
Source of tables: Asian Bond Monitor, September 2013, ADB Bank.
Meanwhile, Malaysia’s central bank has sold RM2.5bn of 30-year bonds, the longest-maturity offering ever but foreign investors have stayed away, the Wall Street Journal has reported. “One concern among investors has been Malaysia’s debt. The country had $145 billion of local-currency government bonds outstanding—one of the highest levels in the region—as of June 30, according to the Asian Development Bank. Indonesia has $89 billion of outstanding government bonds, Thailand has $104 billion and Vietnam has $26 billion.”Source:anilnetto dot com
Personal Info. ONLY, dated 07/10/2013
PAVILION REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
Par Value:0.00/Net Profit:630.205m/Net Assets P.Share:1.10975/Dividend:6.87/Earning P.Share:20.99/PE Ratio:6.54/Dividend Yield:0.05/Share Issued:3,009,684,1990/Market Cap:4,123,267,352.63/
3.36-3.65 twice per year
divided 2013@estimated 5.3%, divided 2012@estimated 2.8%
SUNWAY REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUSTDated 03/10/2013
Par Value:0.00/Net Profit:420.463m/Net Assets P.Share:1.0968/Dividend:7.50/Earning P.Share:15.62/PE Ratio:9.66/Dividend Yield:0.05/Share Issued:2,921,426,900/Market Cap:4,060,783,391.00/
5.20-8.60 three to four per year
divided 2013@estimated 4.07%, divided 2012@estimated 5.2%
STARHILL REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
Par Value:0.00/Net Profit:81.268m/Net Assets P.Share:0.9720/Dividend:6.89/Earning P.Share:6.89/PE Ratio:16.79/Dividend Yield:0.07/Share Issued:1,324,388,889/Market Cap:1,364,120,555.67/
CAPITAMALLS MALAYSIA TRUST
Par Value:0.00/Net Profit:250.465m/Net Assets P.Share:1.1547/Dividend:8.44/Earning P.Share:1.49/PE Ratio:10.67/Dividend Yield:0.06/Share Issued:1,770,391,900/Market Cap:2,673,291,769.00
4.2-4.35 twice per year
divided 2013@estimated 5.54%, divided 2012@estimated 3.8%
IGB REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
Par Value:0.00/ Net Profit:153,292m/ Net Assets P.Share:1.0247/ Dividend:1.83/ Earning P.Share:4.51/ PE Ratio:27.41/ Dividend Yield:0.01/ Share Issued:3,416,620,259/ Market Cap:4,202,442,917.57/
3.34-1.82 twice per year
Dividend per annual calculation for example:
IGB reit
-First Income Distribution of 1.83 sen per unit for the financial period ended 31 December 2012
-Income Distribution of 3.43 sen per unit for the financial period from 1 January 2013 to 30 June 2013
Based on above, the dividend are total 5.26 sen BY calculate %, you may use dividend / share price (current price 1.35)
= 5.260 / 1.35
= 3.896% estimated per annual dividend
