股坛前辈的教训


股坛前辈的教训

-股市“三个五”
①五项原则:一要稳、二要准、三要等、四要狠、五要忍;
②五种忌诲:一忌贪、二忌怕、三忌急、四忌悔、五忌拖;
③五个条件:知识、耐性、胆识、健康和资本。

-股市三类人:
①先知先觉者大口吃肉,
②后知后觉者还可以啃点骨头,
③不知不觉者则要掏钱买单了。

-得到的时候要懂得珍惜,不要等到失去的时候才知道珍贵。有钱赚的时候为什么不走?即使卖错了也只是少赚而已,为什么非要等到亏损时才想着要斩仓呢?适可而止,见好就收,一旦有变,落袋为安。常赚比大赚更重要,它不仅使你的资金雪球越滚越大,而且可以令你保持一个良好的心态。

-股市是戰場,是看不到硝煙的戰場, 這裡看不到屍體和鮮血,但每隔幾年就有人被殘殺,如果你感覺不到那種殺氣和危險,那麼​​你不適合這個地方,你終有一天會被消滅,還不知道是怎麼被消滅的。

-股市是風險最大、最難賺錢的地方,其難度僅次於期貨市場, 所有的陷阱外面都是鮮花盛開,而所有的機會外面都是荊棘密布,如果你沒有分辨的能力,其結果一定是因錯失良機而懊悔,因踏入陷阱而痛苦。輕鬆的背後一定有十倍不輕鬆的障礙。天上不會掉下禮物,世上沒有免費的午餐。

-官有缘授发达秘笈:人家害怕购买时你就买, 当人人都要买时你出售! 我不做长期投资, 我只探讨今,明年取得盈利增长的企业; 我不买官联公司, 种植, 石油天然气, 銀行承包与房地产公司, 以及小型公司。我几时会脱售? 公司单季盈利减少, 我会减持一些, 若公司连续两季盈利下滑, 我会积极脱售。我的投资黃金法则就是公司今年赚得比去年多, 本益比不超12。 当公司宣布盈利增长时, 股价肯定会上涨。

-如果偏向巴菲特模式就买棕油股长期持有,这个市场是很有前景的,全世界只有印尼和我国适合种植。竞争较大的产品就是豆油,而豆油的质量也不如棕油,一旦遇上高温,品质会变劣。那么就可以买BKAWAN,KLK,PBBANK后什么不用做,长期拥有就行了 - 2014年官有缘先生(官有缘讲座)

-根据情绪进行投资可分为三个阶段,叫“散户三部曲”。
买股三部曲:
第一部:熊市——股价低沉,市场淡静,散户绝迹股市,股市死气沉沉。其实,这个时候,大部分股票的价值都被低估,但散户不感兴趣,他们感兴趣的是股价,不是股票的价值。所以他们不买。
第二部:牛皮靠稳——股市上升了一截,散户还是不要买。因为他们在低价时没有买进,现在股价已上升了二、三十巴仙,他们心有不甘,买不下手。
第三部:牛市形成——综指破五关斩六将,冲上一千四百点,散户们见猎心喜,见亲朋戚友捞得风生水起,信心大增,乃大肆进场。就在兴高采烈时,次房事件演成股灾,引出了卖出的三部曲
卖出三部曲:
第一部:利润不多,而牛气逼人,他当然不会卖。
第二部:综合指数跌至1300点,他认为这是暂时性的,不久就会回升,所以决定不卖。况且高价时有得赚,现在反而亏本,他们不甘愿卖。
第三部:综合指数直线下跌,跌破1200点,他有大祸临头之感,信心崩溃了,不计成本抛出。结果发现他是以最低价卖出。
买进三部曲的特点是:高买。卖出三部曲的特点是:低卖。高买低卖,刚好跟股市金言——低买高卖适得其反。你想在股市赚钱吗?如果想的话,很简单,只要将买的和卖的三部曲,颠倒来做就行了。这叫倒行逆施。这就是”反向”。

冷眼以鸟瞰方式来洞悉世界经济全态,并赋予宽广胸襟接纳负面讯息。不妨翻覆此话:
地球不会停止转动,经济的大列车是不会停止前进的,因为人的基本需求永远存在,人类追求更美好生活的欲望,永不消失,故民办经济只有一个方向——前进,明天的世界只有一个景观——更美好。这种情形,就好象地球不会停止转动那么肯定。
唯有建立了这个信心之后,你才有胆色在经济最糟糕的时刻,在股市疮痍满目时,当所有的经济学家,当所有的大众传播媒介——电视、电台、报章、研究机构一致认为全球经济将陷入大萧条时,成为股市的独行侠,大胆大量买进股票,享有丰厚的回酬。”

博主推荐

股東的信(巴菲特) 分享(冷眼) 投资与投机(klse.8k) 买美国未来 公司年报分析 股市新闻 投資功課 价值计算

blog里内容大多来自各主流报章财经, 公司年报, 自我意见, 观察等。 如有失误, 尽请指点: maturemanKLSE@gmail.com, 谢谢。


13.9.15

真真假假, 儍儍分不清楚, 自爽篇~ :P


在这做小小记録, 公司2015年第一季或于五六月公佈的季報简阅, 只做快速參考之用, 绝无投資价值, 呵呵。。。真真假假, 儍儍分不清楚, 自爽篇~  :P  


2015-10-20 10:12

MMC每股4.40令吉私有化NCB, MMC機構(MMCCORP,2194,主板貿服組)宣佈出價每股4令吉40仙或總額11億526萬令吉,向國民投資公司(PNB)和公共信託有限公司(Amanah Raya)收購NCB控股(NCB,5509,主板貿服組)約53.42%股權,過後將以同樣每股4令吉40仙強制全面獻購NCB控股剩餘股權。一旦完成全購,NCB控股將除牌。

點看全文:http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/124508


2015-10-16, the edge
Star Media Group Bhd 宣布,以150万美元(约626万令吉)收购Li TV控股私人有限公司的其余49%股权Li TV是一家联营公司,主要业务为经营与播放英语生活电视频道 “激励人生”(Life Inspired),此频道在亚洲地区播放。Star Media持有Li TV的51%股权,而Juita Viden持有其余的49%股权。

2015-10-15, the edge
IHH医疗保健(IHH Healthcare Bhd)位于中国成都的首家三级医院预计在2017年下半年开业。以及鹏瑞利房地产控股私人有限公司(Perennial Real Estate)达至一项租赁协议,在成都的鹏瑞利国际医疗健康中心经营一家拥有350张床位的三级医院。 IHH目前在中国已有11家医疗中心,包括在成都的医疗中心。除了中国以外,IHH在香港也经营一家医疗中心。此外,IHH正在香港打造一家拥有500张床位的鹰阁香港医院(bedGleneagles Hong Kong Hospital),预计在2017年初开业。

2015-10-15, the edge
联昌国际(CIMB Group Holdings Bhd)主席拿督斯里纳西尔在英国伦敦获颁Asia House亚洲企业领导人大奖(Asia House Asian Business Leaders Award),此奖项旨在表扬个人对经济成就、卓越专业表现、领导能力,以及对社会服务的整体贡献。

Dated 25th Jun 2015
-Asiapac-developer, less development land, Amigo Mall will general positive income, recently just reevaluate it amigo mall & retained earning are one time increased. (share issued:992.429M/market Cap:248.107M, paid up Cap:198.485M, last quarter revenue: 230.312M, PE 0.66, , share price closed@RM0.250)

-Cuscapi-pos system, waiting for China new contract confirmation, once confirm then will perform better in future, another rights issue might occur during next few quarter (share issued:433.53M/market Cap:80.57M, paid up Cap:43.55M, last quarter revenue:51.99M, PE negative, , share price closed@RM0.185, 2014 Annual Report shown total 64.52% on 30 shareholder, top 4 shareholder-Transight System Sdn.Bhd 15.32%, Halley Asian Prosperity (Fund)8.6%, Her Chor Siong 6.09%, Ann Chin Joo(Margin) 5.08%

-CMMT-reit, sg.wang affected due to NEW LRT, next door development(bb plaza), good points on Tropicana Mall & office confirm, FY2016 Melawati Mall will contribute new rental income (share issued-1.778B, will increase later for funding to Tropicana Mall /market Cap-2.454B, march'2015 revenue 317.406M, PE 13.31, , share price closed@RM1.38)

-GOB-developer, damen Mall will be attractive reason once completed at end of 2015 or beginning of 2016, land band at Batu Kawan & Sri Kembangan. (share issued-454.676M, will increase base on rights issued transfer /market Cap-229.611M, paid up Cap-227.338M, march'2015 revenue 445.747M, PE 6.56, , share price closed@RM0.505)

-IDEAL-construction consultant, penang development contract agency, good future benefit from Penang development & batu kawan. (share issued-185.401M will increase base on rights issued transfer /market Cap-88.065M, paid up Cap-18.54M, march'2015 revenue 9.685M, PE 18.7, AEC market, , share price closed@RM0.465)

-OKA-drainage, good profit maker with 10-20% profit margin, (share issued-155.721M/market Cap-135.477M, paid up Cap-77.86M, march'2015 revenue 163.264M, PE 9.21, , share price closed@RM0.870).

-WILLOW-security system, singapore dollars benefactor, 80% contract from S'pore, management performance positive. (share issued-248M/market Cap-228.16M, paid up Cap-24.8M, march'2015 revenue 114.704M, PE 13.27, share price closed@RM0.920)

-Pansar-construction/building materials/oil&gas, potentially with 10b project with start from Batu Kawan Fashion house, contract confirm. (share issued-280M/market Cap-145.6M, paid up Cap-140M, march'2015 revenue 449.77M, PE 9.7, share price closed@RM0.520)

-Econbhd-piling & construction, very impressive management with new contract for very two three months since IPO on Mid of 2014, (share issued-535M, market Cap-567.1M, paid up Cap-107M, march'2015 revenue 424.986M, PE 14.52, , share price closed@RM1.06), 

-CYL-bottle manufacturer, PP bottle manufacturer, benefit from raw material dropped but depend on crude oil price. (share issued-100M, market Cap-72M, paid up Cap-50M(reserved 22.2M), April'2015 revenue 17.3M (reserved 22.2M, net cash 4.4M@ 0.044 cash per share ), PE 12.64, , share price closed@RM0.720, 2014 Annual Report with 84.06% details holder & no institution holder)

-BPplas-stretch film manufacturer, new machine completed on Jun'2015, increase production & less power usage, produce of Polystyrene(PE) film. export to US, europe, Japan, S'pore (share issued-187.688M, market Cap-174.549M, paid up Cap-93.844M, march'2015 revenue 66.845M(reserved 56.997M, net cash 59.31@0.31 cash per share), PE 16.88, , share price closed@RM0.930, 2014 Annual Report with 83.5% details holder & no institution holder)

-Cenbond-paper/stretch film/bottle manufacturer, three business contribute total revenue, paper wrapping is core business, plastic bottle, stretched  film, rental from subsidiaries, JV with Indonesia company for paper bag manufacturing plant in process of Licence & ministry approval, benefit from lower cost of raw materials. (share issued-120M, market Cap-175.2M, paid up Cap-60M, march'2015 revenue 37.75M(reserved 115M, net cash 106M@0.88 cash per share) , PE 10.94, , share price closed@RM1.46, 2014 Annual Report with 79.8% & with four institution holder)

-EIG-beauty & wellness provided, owns and operates 73 corporate outlets comprising 56 AsterSpring skin care salons and 17 retail kiosks strategically located in key shopping malls and retail locations in Malaysia, Singapore, Hong Kong and Thailand. AsterSpring is today one of the leaders in professional skin care salons in Asia with millions of faces treated over 30 years.  share issued-185.5M, market Cap-178.08M, paid up Cap(share cap)-92.75M, march'2015 revenue 41.165M(retained earning 35.866M, net cash 21.265M@0.11 cash per share) , PE 11.02 , share price closed@RM0.96, 2014 Annual Report with 95.26% & with four institution holder)

-HHgroup- principally engaged in manufacturing and trading of biomass materials and manufacturing and trading of mattresses and related products. export both to china with general company revenue about 80-90%,  New plant for mattress product on  to increase production  Mid'2016 enjoy US rate, will bonus 1-1 within 6 months time, proposed to Mainboard & increase share volume to attract institution investor, construct new plant for bio-energy (share issued-205.8M, market Cap-139.944M, paid up Cap-20.58M, march'2015 revenue 37.75M(reserved 26.46M, net cash 3.739M@0.018 cash per share) , PE 10.75, , share price closed@RM0.68, 2014 **support@0.60-buy b4 july

-Liihen, furniture exporter, Koon holding 10.x% shares & price might going up til 6.xx, first is confirm next two quarter performing well according AGM recently, bonus issue later,   share issued-60M, paid up Cap: 60M, march'2015 revenue 139.287M, net cash 20.573M@0.34cash per share) , par value: 1.00,  PE 9.02 , share price closed@RM4.70, with dividend.2014 Annual Report with 7x.x% & with Koon Yin Hue holding the more, support@4.23 buy b4 july

-Deleum, on hand 3.3B projects utill 2020 & 400m project from Petronas 
share issued-400M, market Cap-572M, paid up Cap-200M, march'2015 revenue 135.867M, retained earning 116.071M, net cash -47.255@-0.236 cash per share) , PE 8.34 , share price closed@RM1.43, with dividend. support@1.15 buy at anytime



CAELY HOLDINGS BHD(7154)
4th quarter ended 31 march 2015, price on 28/05/2015 at 0.510, share capital 40m, reserved increased to 37m, cash flow equal to current liabilities but non current liabilities still have 6.6m, cash flow still negative -7.8m!!!
-Prospects for the current financial year
The Group expects the operating environment for the next financial year to be challenging due to the uncertainties in the local and global economic environment. The Board is cautiously optimistic that the financial performance for the next financial year will be satisfactory.











-内衣业务严峻挑战,但马币对美元预测出口会推高盈利。exports its undergarments to Europe, Canada, the United States, and other Asian countries.
-建筑业务有大约3亿令吉值滴工程和发展计划在进行。






















On 4 December 2013, the company announced that it has secured a RM97 mil construction contract from Felcra. The contract is target to be completed within 24 months (by end 2015).
Comments
(a) Export oriented, will benefit from weak Ringgit.
(b) Property development is the main contributor to earnings. The company is new to this business but the management team has more than 16 years experience (in their private capacity). 
(c) Despite recent slow down in property industry, I am of the view that the group's involvment in property development is a plus point. Property development is highly scalable. With tiny market cap at RM36 mil, the group has potential for immense growth.
(d) The company declared 1 sen dividend in FY2014. Based on current market price, dividend yield is 2.2%.
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/69984.jsp



入股息政策的公司如下:
六月資讯
-齐力工业(PMETAL,8869,主要板工业)管理层承诺未来30%至50%派息率。

價值投資 vs 時機投資

價值投資人利用「時間」來賺錢

儘量保持比較高的持股(本金大),利用選股的功力與持股的轉換,不太在意大盤指數的高低變化,因為價值投資人認為,大盤指數無法預測。典型的價值投資人專注在選股,透過質化與量化的分析找出好公司,並評估合理的股價,等待市場效率失靈的時機出現便宜的價位時,買進並長期持有。價值投資人在多頭多賺一些,在空頭少賠一些。很多人誤以為

價值投資 = 滿持股 + 長期持有

關於「滿持股」的風險在於多轉空的過程,如何做防禦?以免把多頭趨勢中的獲利,在空頭市場中全數回吐。而關於「長期持有」的必要條件就是持股成本夠低,以及公司可以穩健成長,為股東持續創造現金。買到產業趨勢向下或買進成本太高,長期持有只會越賠越多。

時機投資人利用「空間」賺錢

在多頭時做多,空頭時做空或是空手,亦或是降低持股。時機投資者在大部分人貪婪的時候賣出,在大部分人恐懼的時候買進。同時考慮總體經濟與景氣循環對股市的影響,進一步的分析大盤基期的高低,研究投資人的心理,採取不同的策略或持股比重。配合科斯托蘭尼的雞蛋理論,順應景氣循環當一位智慧投機者。時機投資人要避免當股市玩家,單純採用技術分析頻繁的進入股市。

大盤高低點可以預測嗎?底部、頭部真的抓的到嗎?這兩個問題,個人認為預測指數是多餘的、是自我設限,因為指數反映的是當時上市公司的總市值,重點是這樣的市值搭配的如何的總經數據、投資人的心理情緒、資金動能等等。

逮到底部 > 大量进场 > 抱牢持股 > 等待头部 > 轻松出场

經濟大衰退的情況

景氣時鐘拉警報,花旗並稱股債都邁入衰退下滑階段。

花旗的景氣時鐘共分四個階段,目前歐美都進入恐怖的第四階段,也就是信貸和股票雙雙走低。

花旗全球策略分析師巴克蘭解釋了景氣時鐘的循環方式:

第一階段:經濟衰退剛結束時,這段期間利率下滑、信貸擴張,但是股市仍低迷不振。

第二階段:牛市萌芽,低廉信貸推動股市起飛。

第三階段:股市持續上衝,但是風險日益提高,信貸利差日增,此一階段易出現泡沫。

第四階段:信貸緊縮,股市崩盤,常會引發經濟衰退。

巴克蘭說,股市和信貸雙雙下滑時,為典型熊市,此時企業獲利會大減、資產負債表惡化。

過去75年來,幾乎每一波經濟危機發生前,都出現油價飆漲現象。但現在令人擔憂的卻是能源價格下挫,可能把全球經濟推入衰退深淵。